Weather Temperature Market NO Bias Strategy

This bot focuses on Polymarket's temperature prediction markets (e.g., 'Will it exceed X degrees in city Y?'). It ingests live METAR weather observations and Open-Meteo forecasts to estimate the true probability of a temperature event. Using a Gaussian probability model, it identifies markets where the implied YES probability is significantly higher than the model's estimate, indicating overpriced YES shares. The bot then places paper trades (simulated) on the NO side, betting on mean reversion. Entry occurs when the model's probability gap exceeds a threshold; exit is at market expiration or if the gap narrows. No real money is deployed, but the logic is production-ready. The repo includes historical analysis but no profit/loss stats. It is a niche strategy dependent on weather forecast accuracy.