Polymarket intelligence, written up every day.

Eight New Bots, Four Worth Cloning, Zero Malware

Today's scan surfaced eight new repositories, four of which are worth cloning, including a perpetual-style edge bot and a weather-statistics bot that sells overpriced temperature NOs. Security remains clean with no confirmed malware, but a garbled-username spam campaign and suspected star farming on two Polymarket repos are worth flagging.

Spain Blocks Polymarket; Clone Malware Campaign Doubles Down

Spain has moved to block Polymarket and Kalshi over unlicensed gambling operations, marking the most significant regulatory action against prediction markets in the EU to date. Separately, a 460KB clone fingerprint malware template has been spotted in two distinct instances, signaling an active coordinated campaign targeting operators.

460KB Malware Template Resurfaces Across Polymarket and Kalshi

A known 460KB malware template is being actively recycled across both Polymarket and Kalshi bot repositories, now confirmed in at least two distinct campaigns. Spain's regulatory block of both platforms adds operational risk for EU-based operators today.

Malware campaign targets bot builders; Spain blocks Polymarket

A confirmed 460KB cloned malware template is circulating in at least two variants targeting prediction market bot builders, paired with a coordinated spam campaign using garbled usernames. Separately, Spain has moved to block Polymarket and Kalshi over licensing, and two research papers identify systematic arbitrage in Polymarket's condition-set structure.

Negative-Risk Arbitrage Windows Open on Polymarket Binary Pairs

A new research paper formally proves that Polymarket's mutually exclusive binary markets create executable arbitrage opportunities when linked prices diverge from deterministic payoff identities — and critically, not all violations close before settlement. Operators running market-making or arb strategies on correlated outcome pairs should review exposure today.