Weather Temperature NO Bet

This strategy focuses on Polymarket temperature prediction markets where the probability of a specific temperature outcome is overpriced by the market. The bot uses live METAR (Meteorological Aerodrome Report) observations and Open-Meteo weather forecasts to calculate a more accurate probability using a Gaussian probability model. When the market price for a 'YES' outcome is significantly higher than the model's calculated probability, it places a 'NO' bet, betting that the temperature will NOT reach the specified threshold. The entry condition is when the model's probability is below the market price by a configurable margin, and the exit occurs at market resolution or when the price becomes favorable. The bot is paper-traded, so no real P&L is available, but it demonstrates a systematic edge over naive market pricing. Implementation is in the 'polymarket-weather-edge' repository, which includes automated data fetching, probability calculation, and order placement logic.