Weather NO-Bias Betting
Weatherscore 5found Jul 1, 2026github.com/BallesJr/polymarket-weather-edge
Paper-trades the NO side of overpriced Polymarket temperature markets using live METAR and forecast data with a Gaussian probability model.
This bot targets daily temperature prediction markets (e.g., 'Will temperature in NYC exceed 90°F?'). It fetches live METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts to compute a fair probability using a Gaussian model. If the market's implied Yes probability is significantly higher (e.g., >60% when model says <40%), it trades NO. Entry is a limit order on the NO side; exit is at settlement or when the price corrects. The repo BallesJr/polymarket-weather-edge is a paper-trading implementation. It avoids real capital risk by design. Performance is tied to forecast accuracy and market mispricing persistence.