Weather NO-Bet Arbitrage
Bets the NO side of overpriced temperature markets using live METAR observations and forecasts
This strategy exploits mispricing in Polymarket temperature prediction markets by consistently betting on the NO side when the probability of a temperature threshold being exceeded is overestimated. It uses live METAR (Meteorological Aerodrome Report) observations combined with Open-Meteo forecast data to calculate a Gaussian probability model for the actual temperature. When the market price implies a higher probability than the model, it takes the NO position.
Entry: The bot scans temperature markets and identifies those where the YES price exceeds the Gaussian-modeled probability by a configurable margin. Exit: Positions are held until settlement, as this is a binary prediction market. The bot is currently paper-trading only to validate the model.
Results are tracked via the dashboard, but no live P&L is available yet. The implementation is in Python, with data pipelines for METAR and Open-Meteo, and uses Polymarket's APIs for order execution.