Weather-Based No-Bet Trading on Temperature Markets
Weatherscore 7found Jul 1, 2026github.com/BallesJr/polymarket-weather-edge
Bets the NO side of overpriced Polymarket temperature markets using live meteorological data and probabilistic models.
This paper-trading bot targets Polymarket markets on daily high/low temperature thresholds. It pulls live METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts, then uses a Gaussian probability model to estimate the true probability of a temperature exceeding a given threshold. If the market's YES price is significantly higher (i.e., overpriced), the bot buys NO shares. Entry requires a probability edge >15% over implied odds. Exit is at settlement or when price corrects. The system backtests on historical data and trades only NO sides to avoid infinite loss risk. No live capital is deployed yet, but paper results show 70% win rate.