Weather Arbitrage Bot
Weatherscore 7found Jul 15, 2026github.com/weather-alpha/polymarket-arb
Exploits mispriced weather event markets by comparing Polymarket odds with NOAA forecasts.
The bot scrapes hourly NOAA weather predictions for major US cities and cross-references them with Polymarket weather event contracts (e.g., 'Will it rain in NYC on July 20?'). When the implied probability from NOAA differs from the market price by more than 15%, the bot places a limit order on the mispriced side. Exits are automated when the gap narrows to under 5% or 4 hours before event resolution. The strategy achieved a 67% win rate in simulated runs over 2 months. Requires a Python script with NOAA API and Polymarket SDK.