Smart Wallet Copy Trading

How It Works All Polymarket trades are settled on-chain (Polygon), making every wallet's trade history publicly auditable. The strategy identifies wallets with statistically significant positive returns over a meaningful sample of resolved markets, then automatically replicates their open positions in real time when new transactions are detected from those wallets.

Entry/Exit Conditions The bot monitors target wallet addresses for new Polymarket contract interactions. Upon detecting a buy transaction from a tracked wallet, the bot immediately submits an identical or scaled buy order in the same market. Exits can mirror the tracked wallet's sells or be held independently to resolution.

Verified Results Copy trading is explicitly listed as a feature in one of the higher-star repos (radioman/polymarket-arbitrage-trading-bot, 474 stars, 131 forks), suggesting real user demand and likely some live usage. No verified alpha from wallet selection methodology is disclosed.

Implementation Notes Wallet selection is the primary challenge: survivorship bias in historical returns is significant, and past performance in prediction markets does not guarantee future alpha if the edge was event-specific. The bot requires a real-time Polygon node or API (e.g., Alchemy, Infura) to detect transactions with minimal latency. Front-running risk exists if the target wallet's trade moves the market before the copy order fills.

Risks Top-performing wallets may be lucky rather than skilled, especially in binary resolution markets. Copying large traders can move the market against both parties. The tracked wallet may have non-public information the copier lacks context for. Latency between detection and execution may result in significantly worse fill prices, eliminating or reversing the edge.