Polymarket Weather Paper Trading Bot (Gaussian NO Edge)
Weatherscore 6found Jul 23, 2026github.com/BallesJr/polymarket-weather-edge
Paper-trading bot exploiting overpriced NO sides of temperature markets using METAR data and Gaussian probability models.
An automated paper-trading bot that systematically bets the NO side of overpriced Polymarket temperature markets by comparing live METAR observations and Open-Meteo forecasts to market-implied probabilities. It uses a Gaussian probability model to estimate the true odds of temperature outcomes. Entry occurs when market odds significantly deviate from model estimates. Exit is at market close or when odds regress. Risk is managed per position sizing. The author reports edge is based on market inefficiency in weather derivatives. Currently paper-trading only; no real PnL data.