Polymarket Weather NO-side Paper Trading Bot

This bot automatically identifies Polymarket temperature markets that are overpriced on the YES side and places NO bets. It uses real-time METAR weather observations combined with Open-Meteo weather forecasts to model the probability distribution of temperature outcomes via a Gaussian assumption. Entry occurs when the model calculates a probability that is significantly lower than the implied market probability, signaling a mispricing. Exit is at market resolution or when the edge diminishes. The strategy is currently paper-trading only with no real funds at risk. Key implementation details include using the Polymarket CLOB API, Open-Meteo free tier for forecasts, and a configurable confidence threshold for bet sizing. Risks include model misspecification if temperature distributions deviate from Gaussian, API latency during high volatility weather events, and potential market manipulation around weather derivatives settlement.