Polymarket Weather NO-Bet Edge

This bot exploits inefficiencies in Polymarket's weather temperature markets by identifying overpriced YES positions. It uses live METAR (aviation weather) observations and Open-Meteo forecasts to model the true probability of a temperature reaching a certain threshold. A Gaussian probability model calculates the fair price, and the bot buys NO when the market price implies a higher probability than the model suggests. It runs in paper-trading mode (no real money), suggesting the developer is in the testing phase. The strategy has a clear edge in using real-time weather data that may not be perfectly reflected in the market. Risks include model errors, weather forecast uncertainty, and the fact that it's paper trading only.