Polymarket Political Cross-Market Arbitrage

This quant bot focuses on political prediction markets, identifying mispricings between related contracts (e.g., correlated election outcomes). It uses a process-first approach to detect no-arbitrage violations where the combined implied probabilities of mutually exclusive events exceed 1 or fall below 1. The bot sizes positions using fractional Kelly criterion to optimize growth while managing risk. It refuses to trade unless a backtested out-of-sample edge is confirmed, and operates in paper-trading mode by default to preserve capital. Implementation is Python-based, with a focus on survival over profit in the early stages.