Crypto Trend Following on Polymarket 5-Minute Markets

How It Works The bot computes trend indicators (likely moving averages, momentum oscillators, or breakout signals) on 5-minute crypto price data. When a trend signal triggers, it bets the corresponding direction on Polymarket's short-duration crypto outcome markets, treating them as a leveraged expression of the trend.

Entry / Exit Conditions Entry: trend indicator crosses a signal threshold indicating directional momentum. Exit: natural market resolution at the 5-minute boundary, or earlier if the trend signal reverses strongly.

Verified Results A dedicated report dashboard repository (pm-crypto-trend-dashboard) exists separately from the bot, implying ongoing performance monitoring. No numerical results are stated.

Implementation Notes The separation of the trading bot and its dashboard into two repos suggests a modular, somewhat mature architecture. Trend following on 5-minute crypto data is a well-studied domain, though applying it to binary prediction markets rather than continuous instruments changes the payoff structure significantly.

Risks Mean reversion dominates at very short timeframes in crypto, making trend signals at 5-minute resolution unreliable. The binary payout structure of Polymarket markets means the strategy must be right about direction by the resolution time, not just temporarily. Transaction costs and market spreads on short-duration markets can be proportionally large.