Crypto Price Trend Following on Prediction Markets (5-Minute)

How It Works Polymarket lists markets tied to crypto price levels (e.g., 'Will BTC close above $70k this week?'). The underlying asset's spot price is a strong predictor of these market probabilities. The bot monitors crypto price feeds and computes short-term trend indicators on a 5-minute bar interval. When trend signals are bullish, it buys the YES side of relevant markets; when bearish, it buys NO.

Entry / Exit Conditions Entry is triggered by trend indicator crossovers or directional momentum signals on the 5-minute chart of the underlying crypto. The exact indicators are not disclosed. Exit conditions are inferred to be either signal reversal or market resolution.

Verified Results A dedicated report dashboard exists, implying the strategy is actively running and being monitored. No PnL statistics are disclosed publicly.

Implementation Notes The dashboard architecture (separate repo for reporting) suggests a production-oriented design with separation of concerns between trading logic and monitoring. The 5-minute cadence is aggressive and requires reliable, low-latency crypto price feeds and Polymarket API access.

Risks Polymarket prediction market prices for crypto outcomes are not perfectly correlated with spot prices; they incorporate time decay and probability-of-resolution factors that pure trend signals ignore. Slippage in thin markets can eliminate edge quickly. The strategy may overfit to recent crypto trend regimes.