Cross-Market Political Arbitrage

This strategy, implemented in the 'arbiter' bot, scans multiple related election markets for price discrepancies that violate the no-arbitrage condition (e.g., probabilities of mutually exclusive events summing to more than 1). It sizes positions using fractional Kelly criterion to optimize growth while managing risk. The bot requires a backtested out-of-sample edge before executing any trade, emphasizing survival over profit. Entry occurs when a clear arbitrage spread is detected; exit is when the spread normalizes or at expiration. Paper-trading by default, it focuses on political markets.