Complete-Set Arbitrage with Multi-Engine Adaptive Capital Allocation

How It Works Complete-set arbitrage exploits the fact that on Polymarket, buying a complete set of all outcomes in a multi-outcome market costs exactly $1 and resolves to exactly $1. When individual outcome shares can be purchased for a combined total below $1 (accounting for fees), a riskless profit exists. This strategy runs this as one of several engines within a larger framework.

Entry Conditions The meta-controller allocates capital to the complete-set arbitrage engine based on IF/AND/OR regime detection logic — for example, increasing allocation when volatility in other engines is high and arbitrage opportunities are present. The Bayesian calibration layer continuously updates the edge estimate for each engine.

Exit Conditions Complete-set positions resolve at market expiry. The meta-controller may reduce allocation to this engine dynamically if the opportunity set shrinks.

Verified Results No verified results provided. The architecture description is sophisticated but the repo has only 1 star, suggesting it is a personal or early-stage research project.

Implementation Notes & Risks The multi-engine architecture with Bayesian calibration and neural plasticity components is ambitious and potentially over-engineered for what are relatively simple arbitrage mechanics. The risk is that complexity in the meta-controller introduces new failure modes (e.g., misidentifying regimes) that offset arbitrage gains. The combination of crypto trading, altcoin farming, and prediction market arbitrage in one system creates correlated drawdown risk during market stress events when all engines may underperform simultaneously.