Automated BTC Price Prediction Scalping (15-Minute Markets)

How It Works The NC-Paul/polymarket-bot automates trading on Polymarket's 15-minute BTC price markets by consuming real-time BTC price feeds and applying custom trigger conditions — likely momentum or threshold-crossing signals — to determine when to enter YES or NO positions. A smart stop-loss mechanism manages downside on individual trades, and a web dashboard provides live monitoring.

Entry / Exit Conditions Entry: triggered when real-time BTC price action meets a custom condition (e.g., price crossing a moving average, momentum indicator threshold, or proximity to the market's strike price within the 15-minute window). The "smart stop-loss" implies the bot can exit a position early if the market price moves against the thesis, though early exit mechanics on Polymarket depend on available liquidity for the opposing side.

Verified Results No verified P&L data is provided. The repository has 4 stars and 1 fork, suggesting limited but nonzero community interest. The inclusion of a web monitoring dashboard implies the author has run the bot live, though results are not published.

Implementation Notes Real-time BTC price data likely sourced from a CEX WebSocket feed (Binance, Coinbase). The 15-minute market window is very short, so the edge — if any — must come from rapid signal generation and execution, not from deep fundamental analysis. The stop-loss mechanism is important because an unfavorable 15-minute market can go to near-zero quickly if BTC moves sharply against the prediction.

Risks - **Thin edge**: short-duration binary markets are heavily influenced by noise; momentum signals on 15-minute BTC data have low predictive power. - **Spread costs**: Polymarket's bid-ask spread on short-duration markets can be wide, consuming edge. - **Execution latency**: advantage disappears if the signal is not acted upon within seconds. - **Overfitting**: custom triggers without rigorous backtesting are prone to curve-fitting.