15-Minute Crypto Up/Down Hedged Spread (Two-Sided Market Making)

Make hedged two-sided spread trades on Polymarket 15-minute crypto Up/Down markets, keeping total entry cost below a configured limit to ensure positive EV even without directional conviction.

How It Works This strategy treats 15-minute BTC Up/Down binary markets as a spread-making opportunity rather than a directional bet. The bot simultaneously posts or takes positions on both the YES and NO sides of a binary market, capturing the spread between the two prices. Since YES + NO prices sum to slightly less than 1.0 (due to Polymarket's fee structure), a two-sided position is only profitable if the spread is wide enough — requiring active monitoring of the bid-ask spread and total entry cost.

Entry Conditions Entry is triggered when the YES price + NO price sum leaves enough margin after fees to guarantee a positive payoff regardless of outcome. A configurable cost ceiling ensures the bot never enters a trade where the combined cost of both sides exceeds the guaranteed $1.00 payout. The Gamma API is used for market data ingestion.

Implementation Notes Built in TypeScript, suggesting a browser/Node.js compatible implementation. The 'Spreadmaker' naming reinforces the market-making framing. Configurable hedge thresholds allow tuning the minimum required spread before entry. The bot targets the specific 15-minute resolution cadence, which provides frequent trading opportunities.

Risks In efficient 15-minute crypto markets, two-sided spread opportunities are rare and quickly arbitraged away by other participants. Fees on Polymarket can consume most or all of the theoretical spread. Execution risk is significant — if only one side fills, the position becomes unhedged directional exposure. The 15-minute window is long enough for significant price moves that can push one side to near-zero, creating illiquidity on the losing leg.