DRADIS Multi-Strategy Bot Surfaces, Spain Blocks Polymarket
A unified multi-strategy bot called DRADIS emerged today combining momentum, arbitrage, ML, and time decay under a single risk engine — the most complete open-source Polymarket framework seen this cycle. Meanwhile Spain's regulatory block on Polymarket and Kalshi signals accelerating jurisdiction risk that operators need to price into infrastructure decisions now.
DRADIS Is the Bot to Clone This Week
Four repos earned a worth-cloning verdict today, but DRADIS is the one demanding immediate attention. It's not a single-strategy tool — it runs momentum, market making, arbitrage, time decay, basis trading, ML inference, and trend following under a unified risk engine with real-time monitoring. That architecture is rare in open-source Polymarket tooling, where most repos implement one edge and abandon the position sizing problem entirely. If you're running separate bots for separate strategies, DRADIS's risk consolidation layer alone is worth studying before you clone anything else.
New Bots Found: 2026-08-03
**DRADIS** — *Worth cloning.* Multi-strategy with unified risk engine. See above.
**polymarket-weather-edge** — *Worth cloning.* Gaussian probability model ingesting live METAR observations and comparing them to market-implied probabilities on weather questions. The core logic: when the market overprices YES on a weather event, the bot buys NO. Clean, falsifiable edge with a real data source. Weather markets on Polymarket are notoriously mispriced around resolution windows — this is a systematic way to harvest that.
**auspex** — *Worth cloning.* Event-driven screener targeting crypto price target markets. It computes a distance-to-trigger metric — how far the underlying asset is from the resolution threshold — and generates resolution-confidence scores to time entries. Straightforward but the implementation matters; most traders eyeball this manually and get the timing wrong.
**winning-wallet-finder** — *Worth cloning.* Copytrading analytics using z-score analysis to separate consistently profitable wallets from lucky ones. Includes a backtester so you can validate a wallet's historical edge before following live signals. The backtester is the differentiator — blind copytrading is negative EV without it.
**polymarketfuturesbot** — *Monitor only.* Short-term mean-reversion and momentum on US Futures prediction markets. Concept is sound but the repo needs more time before a cloning recommendation.
Security
No malware confirmed in today's batch. All eight repos scanned clean. Standard due diligence still applies before running anything with live wallet access.
Alpha Signals
No live trade signals today. Three research papers worth reading:
An agentic AI pipeline for clustering prediction markets by topic — identifying implicit equivalences and contradictions across fragmented markets — is directly applicable to cross-market arbitrage. If two markets are asking the same question with different phrasing and different prices, that's free money. Automating the detection of those equivalences is the hard part; this paper addresses it.
An LLM-based merger arbitrage forecasting system using long-context reasoning over deal documents shows strong performance on M&A outcome prediction. Polymarket runs M&A markets. The methodology is transferable.
A conditional diffusion model for arbitrage-free implied volatility surfaces is less directly applicable but worth tracking for anyone building options-adjacent pricing models or thinking about volatility as a signal input.
Strategy Intelligence
The Hacker News front page today tells a regulatory story. Spain has blocked both Polymarket and Kalshi over missing gambling licenses, hitting 1,083 points — that's not a niche story, it's mainstream. Pair that with the Iran missile death threat story at 1,606 points and you have a platform that is simultaneously gaining cultural visibility and attracting regulatory heat. Operators running EU-facing infrastructure should audit their setups.
Separately, the "Nothing Ever Happens" bot — which always buys NO on non-sports markets — hit 471 points. This isn't just a meme. It's a live demonstration that naive base-rate NO buying has been profitable enough to be newsworthy. The strategy has limits, but anyone not accounting for resolution bias toward NO in long-horizon markets is leaving edge on the table.
What to Watch
DRADIS deployment reports from anyone who clones it. Spain's block for signs of contagion to other EU jurisdictions. The market clustering paper for a working implementation — if someone builds it, cross-market arb gets significantly easier to automate.