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WallStreet-v-PolyMarket

github.com/Prad-Nanduri/WallStreet-v-PolyMarket

Monitorrisk: LowTypeScript0 starsfound Sep 15, 2026

TypeScript cross-market probability arbitrage dashboard comparing traditional market/Wall Street implied probabilities against Polymarket pricing.

Strategy

Cross-market probability arbitrage — compares Wall Street (options/futures-implied) probabilities against Polymarket pricing on correlated events to surface divergences.


The category many prediction-market tools miss entirely: comparing Polymarket-implied probabilities against what traditional financial markets imply about the same event. If the Fed's meeting path is priced in SOFR futures, if a company's earnings are priced in options skew, if an election outcome is priced in FX — those implied probabilities are a reference against which Polymarket pricing can be compared, and persistent divergence is a real arbitrage or mispricing signal. This repo appears to attempt that comparison in a TypeScript dashboard. At ~209KB it's a small, auditable codebase, likely making API calls to public market data and rendering side-by-side views. The challenge is not the dashboard — it's data hygiene: mapping an options-implied probability to a Polymarket contract on the 'same' question requires careful event-identity resolution, and that is where most cross-market tools quietly break. No stars or forks yet, so no external validation. Worth a read as a reference architecture for anyone thinking about traditional-finance-vs-prediction-market spreads; not yet deployable as a strategy engine.