BalllesJr/polymarket-weather-edge

Polymarket-weather-edge is a niche but clever Python bot that paper-trades Polymarket temperature markets, systematically betting on the NO side of what it identifies as overpriced outcomes. It uses live METAR (aviation weather) observations and Open-Meteo forecasts combined with a Gaussian probability model to estimate true probabilities. When the market price implies a higher probability than the model, it bets against it (NO side). This is a textbook statistical arbitrage strategy applied to weather derivatives. With only 1 star and 0 forks, it's very early stage. The code appears clean and follows scientific Python conventions — pandas, numpy, and requests for data ingestion. The paper-trading mode is sensible for validating the model before risking capital. No malware indicators were found. The main risk is model accuracy: weather forecasting is notoriously difficult, and the Gaussian assumption may not capture extreme events. This bot is ideal for data scientists or quants with an interest in alternative data and prediction markets. It requires modification for live trading and capital allocation. Final verdict: worth_cloning for educational value and as a foundation for weather strategy development.