winning-wallet-finder
github.com/jaxperro/winning-wallet-finder
Find Polymarket wallets with statistically-verifiable edge (z-score), test copy-trading, and get real-time trade notifications.
Statistical analysis of Polymarket wallet performance using z-scores to identify profitable traders for copy-trading signals.
Winning Wallet Finder implements a data-driven approach to identifying consistently profitable traders on Polymarket using statistical methods. The core algorithm calculates z-scores for wallet performance metrics to determine if a trader's edge is statistically significant or merely luck. This provides a more robust foundation for copy-trading decisions compared to simple P&L chasing. The repository includes modules for wallet data collection from Polymarket's API, statistical analysis with confidence intervals, and real-time notification system for detected trades. The Python codebase demonstrates understanding of statistical concepts including normal distribution assumptions, sample size requirements, and confidence thresholds. The project structure suggests potential for extension into a full copy-trading signal generation system. However, the zero stars and lack of community engagement raise questions about reliability and real-world performance. The statistical methodology is sound but requires careful validation against Polymarket's order book data. The README provides basic setup instructions and usage examples. For researchers interested in Polymarket whale analysis or copy-trading signal generation, this repository offers a statistical foundation worth exploring. The z-score approach is more sophisticated than naive performance tracking. Recommended for monitoring to see if the developer continues active development and adds validation studies.