MusicBoiyzzz/Polymarket-Weather-Bot

This TypeScript-based Polymarket Weather Bot specializes in temperature prediction markets using NOAA/NWS forecast data for edge calculation. The 624KB codebase implements a sophisticated pipeline: fetching National Weather Service forecasts, converting temperature probability distributions into implied market probabilities, then applying Kelly criterion for optimal position sizing. The Kelly fraction calculation appears to use a multi-timeframe analysis to validate forecast consistency before trade execution. The bot features trade simulation backtesting against historical weather data, allowing strategy validation without risking capital. The stack includes FastAPI for the API layer and Rust bindings for performance-critical probability calculations. Topics reference simmer (Monte Carlo simulation) and bonding curves, suggesting advanced position management. This bot addresses a specific market niche where weather forecast accuracy can provide a measurable edge. The NOAA data integration is particularly valuable as weather prediction markets often misprice based on public forecasts rather than raw NWS model outputs. Recommended for traders interested in weather derivatives or Kelly-optimized strategies. The TypeScript/Node implementation makes it accessible for modification while maintaining performance.